PtX Markets

Markets, Policies, and Business Models for Green Fuels: PtX in Long-term Planning to Short-term Trading and Control, and from Demand to Supply


In Feb 2023, the European Commission (EC) published its Green Deal Industrial Plan in response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). To support the scale-up of EU manufacturing capacity for net-zero technologies, the EU Innovation Fund, through competitive bids, will cover the funding gap with a fixed premium for each kg of renewable hydrogen produced over a period of 10 years (similar to the IRA). Subsequently, the EC published its Delegated Act on Renewable Hydrogen (in the remainder called Delegated Act) defining what is considered a renewable fuel of non-biological origin (RFNBO) for EU production and imports (also called green hydrogen/fuels in the remainder). Combined with the need for decarbonisation of the hard-to-abate sectors, this will facilitate the transition towards green fuels and enable new business opportunities in the EU and beyond.

In this regard, the overall objective of this project is to assess the market potential for hydrogen and green fuels and their implications for the European electricity market. As such, it will focus on both, the short-term operations of PtX assets on different electricity markets (spot and balancing power), as well as the long-term market design, and regulation of green hydrogen/fuels and biofuels to support the deployment of PtX serving the industrial and transportation demands throughout Europe.

The research gaps identified are:

  • It will provide comprehensive organizational models for the market development of green hydrogen and fuels to derive demand and supply upscaling policies for the sector.
  • It will provide beyond state-of-the-art VRE generation profiles focusing on green fuel production considering both sub-hourly variations and forecast error uncertainty.
  • It will develop a holistic bidding strategy model for PtX assets accounting for the spot and all ancillary service markets, while considering (i) physical details the assets, (ii) constraints imposed by the demand side, (iii) constraints imposed by energy-intensive ancillary services, and (iv) constraints/opportunities raised by the Delegated Act.
  • It will also evaluate market incentives or regulations needed to bridge the initial financing gap between willingness to pay in the transport sector and profitable business models for the producers.
  • It derives optimal allocation and dimensioning of PtX investments throughout Europe.

Expected results/impact

  • Scientific paper on green fuel markets and policies for demand uptake
  • Dataset on green fuel demand estimation
  • Report/scientific paper on the short-term operations of PtX assets focusing on green fuel production.
  • Report/scientific paper on business models, trading and control strategy for PtX plants.
  • Scientific paper on analysis of regulation for green fuels and market design, and the impacts on European PtX investments.
  • Data/prototype on a new version of the CorRES tool for modelling VRE generation technologies tailored to green fuel production.


Dogan Keles

Professor at DTU Management and head of the Energy Economics and Modelling section (EEM).


10.5 M DKK




January 2024


24 Months


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