Learning question: Within the fuel production segment of the value chain for shipping and aviation, what optimisation potentials driving achievement of cost parity and demonstration of pathway scalability, can significantly/dramatically give cost reduction potentials for 2030 and years following?

In 2030, sustainable fuels will still face cost challenges compared to fossil fuels, hindering widespread adoption. Without financial support to bridge the gap, their role in decarbonising key sectors may be constrained, slowing the overall green transition.

By 2030, particularly biofuels and early-stage e-fuels, or combinations hereof, that are currently close to commercial maturity, will play a critical role in reducing emissions in the shipping and aviation sector, leveraging existing infrastructure and feedstocks to meet short-term climate goals.

We look for systemic and value chain-oriented projects that can demonstrate or advance sustainable fuels with potential to deliver significant cost reduction of sustainable fuels for 2030. For biofuels, it’s important that they’re sustainable, i.e. the bio-feedstocks must align with the EU RED III rules for “advanced” feedstocks & must not include energy crops or crops grown for food.

The theme aims to identify and implement significant optimisation opportunities within the fuel production segment of sustainable fuels within an international perspective contributing directly to the theme 1 learning question. The focus will be on significant cost reduction looking at the entire fuel production value chain.

This could be: higher utilisation efficiency improvements and scaling solutions that significantly enhance production economics and deployability towards 2030. Key areas include electrolysis, synthesis pathways, process integration, sector coupling, and system efficiencies.

This includes identifying process improvements, energy efficiency gains, and system integration methods that lower costs significantly, improving conversion efficiencies in e.g. hydrogen production or fuel synthesis and connecting sustainable fuel production with existing industries.

A total budget of 50 million DKK is allocated for this theme, and we will invest in two to three projects with an investment rate of ≤70%. These projects must be balanced collaborative value chain consortia. Project proposals should include relevant aspects of social science and humanities (SSH), land-use, life-cycle-assessment (LCA), safety, certification, regulation, identification and understanding of end-demands, and synergies to other competing technologies and/or end-products. The proposal must describe how it envisions that their specific technology can compete internationally with existing technologies and create Danish jobs.

Learning question: Across the entire value chain from supply source to customer demand for green fuels for shipping and aviation, what factors/barriers must be addressed so that MissionGreenFuels can direct its future activities towards enabling scaling of the value chain?

Due to the length of investments cycles in the shipping and aviation industries it is imperative that we invest and take action already now to meet the 2050 targets. For instance, newbuild vessels brought into operation in 2030 will also be in operation by 2050. Towards 2050 the effort must focus on turning the proven and scalable fuel pathways into truly scaled fuel pathways that delivers within the established frames entailing standards, regulation, and business.

By understanding the barriers and enabling factors in standards, certification and business frameworks, and regulation and infrastructure that lie ahead of us, we can, in future calls, focus on solving these challenges.

This theme seeks to map, analyse, and address the key enablers and barriers for a fully scalable operational value chain for sustainable fuels in shipping and aviation towards 2050. Unlike theme 1, which focuses on production optimisation, this effort will identify and implement systemic changes needed to activate demand, create trade mechanisms, ensure infrastructure development, and enable certification and regulatory frameworks that drive sustainable and low emission fuel production pathways. The key enabler or barrier is likely also a barrier towards 2030, but the applicant must argue how this is also a relevant in a 2050 context, and how this can be addressed in that context.

A total budget of 10 million DKK is allocated for this theme. We will invest in one to three projects with an investment rate of maximum 75%. For this call we expect projects that can identify real world barriers, enabling factors, and scenarios towards 2050 that MissionGreenFuels can focus on as next steps ensuring that we are ahead and that there is a clear bridge and synergy in the project portfolio.